Date issued

Feb 7, 2018 - 4:09 PM

Valid until

Feb 10, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Prepared by

Timothy Johnson

Avoid all avalanche terrain as avalanches can run to valley bottom.

Regular season
Thursday - February 8, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Friday - February 9, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Saturday - February 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Deep Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The weak facet layer in the snowpack could wake-up with the new snow forecasted on Thursday.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Watch for slab formation with warming temperatures into the weekend. The new snow may also be sitting on old wind slabs

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Summary

There have been large avalanches to the West of Waterton, in the Lizard Range, in the last week.

Snowpack Summary

There is a weak facet layer deep in the snowpack that has been producing large avalanches to the West of Waterton. We are concerned that the new snow on Thursday might cause this weak layer to fail producing large avalanches.

Weather Forecast

Winter Storm Warning in effect for Waterton on Thursday. Forecasts models regarding precipitation amounts range from 20cm-50cm. This snow is accompanied with cold temperatures (-15C) and light NE winds. Snow will taper off into Friday, temperatures will warm-up and skies will clear into the weekend.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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