Date issued

Dec 29, 2017 - 5:07 PM

Valid until

Jan 1, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Prepared by

Ruari Macfarlane

Fresh, deep powder disguises a thin snowpack.  Be aware that where wind affect is obvious, danger may be higher than forecast ratings.  Rising temperatures and sun on cold loose snow may keep danger levels elevated heading into Monday.

Regular season
Friday - December 29, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - December 30, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - December 31, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Dry

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Deep surface snow with little cohesion is draped across the park.  A puff of wind, spike of sun, or your own wading could be enough to set it in motion.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Exposed areas saw wind transport Thursday night, and may do on Friday night also - just enough to set up isolated storm slabs in unusual (South and West facing) lee features.  These could be reactive; particularly on Saturday, and during midday sun.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Keep an eye out for reverse loading created by an upslope storm.
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent snowfall mixed with wind loading has created storm slabs.

Avalanche Summary

Poor visibility limited observations on Thursday and Friday. Several small natural avalanches (loose dry and wind slab) were observed on NW-NE aspects on Wednesday, in steep terrain at and below Treeline. Widespread whumping and shooting cracks were noted from 1700-1900m, but all except lee areas had too many protruding stumps/rocks to avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

35cm low density new snow (and increasing), with soft Storm Slabs lee to NE winds in highly exposed areas. Down 70cm is a layer of facets over a crust. This has been giving moderate and hard, sudden results in tests in Western areas. It seems most sensitive 1600-1900m, however these elevations are mainly below threshold snow depths for avalanches.

Weather Forecast

Another large snowfall Friday night may double current storm snow totals.  Moderate NE winds possible for a short time overnight. Otherwise light winds are forecast; but pay attention as as any wind will up the danger.  Clearing trend on Sunday. Temperatures will remain in the -20's overnight and through Saturday, then rise to around -5 by Monday.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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