Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Apr 9, 2018 - 4:33 PM

Valid until

Apr 10, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

The warming trend and elevated avalanche danger continues for a few more days. Choose conservative terrain and be especially wary of overhead hazards as the day heats up or if the sun shines.

Regular season
Tuesday - April 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - April 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - April 12, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rising freezing levels and daytime warming have been triggers for recent large, loose wet snow releases.  Once moving, a loose, wet release may have the potential to trigger a slab on a deeper weak layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices are reported to be large and may become weak with rising freezing levels and/or sun exposure. A cornice failure has the potential to trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to overhead hazard from cornices.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday several loose wet, natural and skier triggered avalanches up to size 2 were reported, as well as storm slabs up to size 1.5 with natural, skier and explosive triggers.

Last week, on Friday both natural and easily skier-triggered wind slab releases up to size 1.5 were reported in the southern part of the region, while several loose dry avalanches were reported in the Crowsnest Pass area. Read recent MIN report here.

And on Thursday in the Elkford area, recent small (size 1) loose/dry avalanches were reported on northerly aspects while loose/wet were observed on solar aspects. In the southeast corner of the region skier-triggered loose/dry avalanches were reported to be running far on a recently buried crust.

Snowpack Summary

Rising freezing levels have caused the recent 10-15 cm of storm snow to become moist up to about 2000 m. Below 1400 m in some areas, rain has soaked the snow surface.

Multiple crusts exist within the top 100 cm of the snowpack. Some parts of the region may have a surface hoar layer roughly 60 cm deep on north aspects at treeline.

A well settled midpack sits above sugary facets in many parts of the region, especially thin snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near 0. Freezing level 2200 m.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Alpine temperature near +4. Freezing level 2600 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light to moderate, west. Alpine temperature near 0. Freezing level 2000 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, south. Alpine temperature near -2. Freezing level 1200 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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