Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Mar 23, 2018 - 3:42 PM

Valid until

Mar 24, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Strong winds are driving the alpine danger to CONSIDERABLE. Watch for whumphing and cracking below your feet and continue to make observations while gaining elevation towards alpine terrain.

Regular season
Saturday - March 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - March 25, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - March 26, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Changing winds from East to West continue to be strong, redistributing the new storm snow onto most aspects. Wind slabs will likely be reactive to skier/rider triggers. Loose dry avalanches may occur from steeper terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid large slopes with thin-thick snow coverage and convex features.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and tree line.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.

Avalanche Summary

Natural loose dry avalanches were reported on Friday from steeper slopes and terrain features.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of new snow, accompanied by strong easterly winds in the beginning of the storm and now switching to the southwest are forming wind slabs on a variety of aspects. Forecast snow for Saturday will add to these totals and may initially have a poor bond to the underlying old snow surfaces which consist of crusts up to 2100 m and dry snow or surface hoar on north aspects above 2100 m. Snowpack testing on the March 15th surface hoar interface (down 20-40 cm on sheltered North aspects) has shown no significant results in the Barnes area. The mid-pack is is well consolidated.

Deeper in the snowpack (50-80 cm down) a surface hoar buried mid-February may exist. This interface is dormant.

Digging towards the bottom of the snowpack you'll find a combination of crusts and facets that are reportedly widespread.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Mainly cloudy. New snow 5-15 cm accompanied by strong southwest ridgetop winds. Alpine temperatures near -4 and freezing levels 1700 m.

Sunday: Mix of sun and clouds with isolated flurries. Ridgetop wind strong from the West and freezing levels near 1400 m.

Monday: Cloudy with some sunny periods and isolated flurries. Ridgetop wind strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -8 and freezing levels 1300 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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