Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Mar 13, 2018 - 4:33 PM

Valid until

Mar 14, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Mild temperatures are expected in the morning followed by a cooling trend over the day. The best riding will be in areas sheltered from the warming and wind effects.

Regular season
Tuesday - March 13, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - March 14, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - March 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Deep Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Deeply buried weak layers linger in the snowpack. These layers are most likely to be triggered from thin snowpack areas. Avoid lingering below corniced ridges, as a cornice fall could trigger deeper layers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Steep, south facing slopes are the most likely areas to trigger deeper layers.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and shallow snowpack areas where triggering deeper layers is more likely.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger deep persistent slabs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

High freezing levels, morning sun, and possible afternoon rain will warm the snowpack on all aspects. Pay close attention to the moisture of the snow surface and avoid overhead exposure. This problem will be reduced when the snow surface is frozen.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where small avalanches can have high consequence.
  • Watch for signs that the snow is moistening such as pin-wheeling and point-releases below cliffs.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread loose wet avalanches were noted on solar aspects to size 2 on Monday.  Explosive control in the Elk Valley triggered cornices on predominantly north aspects.  Evidence of natural slab avalanche activity was also observed on easterly aspects.  The slab depths were around 50 to 80 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

Warm air temperatures and daytime sun have produced moist snow on all aspects.  With dropping freezing levels, the moist snow will harden into a melt-freeze crust.  On shady aspects at high elevations, lingering wind slabs in lee features and loose dry in sheltered features may still exist.

A weak layer of surface hoar buried mid-February exists in parts of the region around 50 to 80 cm deep.  The lower snowpack is weak with a combination of crusts and facets near the bottom of the snowpack that are widespread.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Morning sun and afternoon clouds with light snowfall at higher elevations and rain below, accumulation 1 to 2 mm, moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature 2 C, freezing level 3000 m dropping to 1500 m over the afternoon.

THURSDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 3 to 8 cm, light westerly winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.

FRIDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, light easterly winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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