Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Feb 17, 2018 - 4:46 PM

Valid until

Feb 18, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Intense snowfall beginning late Saturday afternoon and overnight, will increase avalanche danger on Sunday. Conservative terrain with no overhead hazard is a good choice.

Regular season
Saturday - February 17, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - February 19, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind will form touchy slabs, especially at higher elevations and in wind-exposed terrain. A slab release near the surface may step down and trigger deep persistent weak layers, resulting in large destructive avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices have triggered very large avalanches recently. Avoid lingering in runout zones below large corniced slopes, and stay well back from corniced ridge lines if traveling above them.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep slopes below cornices.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Problem 3: Deep Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Several deeply buried weak layers have the potential to produce large avalanches reaching run out zones. Cornices have been a recent trigger for very large avalanches. Avoid shallow rocky snowpack areas where human triggering may also be possible.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Avalanche Summary

Friday, ski cuts and explosive control produced loose storm snow avalanches up to size 1.

On Thursday both natural and skier triggered wind slabs up to size 1.5 were reported as well as loose, storm snow releases from steep rocky terrain.

Tuesday we received reports of size 3 avalanches that were likely triggered by cornice fall last weekend and ran full path to valley bottom. See here for the MIN report.

Avalanche activity will increase as a result of Saturday's storm event. Expect widespread storm slab activity and new cornice growth with intense snowfall and wind-loading. Rapid loading also has the potential to wake up buried weak layers. Conservative terrain with no overhead hazard is recommended.

Snowpack Summary

About 20-40 cm on new snow and winds have led to the creation of wind slabs on leeward features at upper elevations on a wide range of aspects.

In sheltered areas near treeline and below, these slabs overly a layer of surface hoar buried mid-February that has produced very easy, sudden results in recent snowpack tests.

The lower snowpack in this region is weak with two main concerns; a widespread weak layer from mid-December composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar that is 100-150 cm deep, and second, a rain crust with sugary facets buried in late-November near the bottom of the snowpack. Although the snowpack structure is variable across the region, these persistent weak layers are generally widespread.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Snow. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, east. Temperature -16. Freezing level valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, light flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind moderate to strong, northeast. Temperature -20. Freezing level valley bottom.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, northeast. Temperature -15. Freezing level valley bottom.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, southwest. Temperature -12. Freezing level valley bottom.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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