Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Jan 9, 2018 - 4:19 PM

Valid until

Jan 10, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

New snow is adding stress to touchy weak layers in the snowpack.

Regular season
Tuesday - January 9, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - January 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - January 11, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow is likely to fail as loose snow or slab avalanches, especially in steep alpine or treeline terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds or shooting cracks.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow may overload an already touchy weak layer. Persistent slabs are especially likely at and below treeline. The trees may not be the safe haven you expect: adopt a cautious attitude to all avalanche terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain around treeline.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observations include naturally-occurring slab avalanches at around 1900 m and ongoing reports of touchy conditions, with whumpfing and cracking observed. As snow continues to fall, avalanche activity is expected to increase.

A timber sledder triggered and was caught in a small avalanche on a road cut on Sunday. It occurred a little below treeline, south of the Crowsnest. Avalanche conditions seem especially touchy in this type of terrain right now.

Snowpack Summary

A volatile weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below. Slabs can fail very easily on this layer, either naturally or with the weight of a person or machine. Every extra snowflake adds stress to this layer.

The snowpack is variable across the region, but persistent slabs are a generally widespread problem. Wind slab and storm slab distribution will be more variable. Hard wind slabs can be found in parts of the region due to recent extreme south-west winds. Windward alpine slopes may be scoured; and variable wind slabs are found at treeline and alpine elevations. New snow is likely to fail as storm slabs and/or loose avalanches.

Deeper in the snowpack, an early season rain crust and sugary facets make up the picture. An avalanche in motion could step down to these deeper layers, creating a surprisingly large avalanche. Overall snowpack depths are variable across the region. It's generally shallower in the east.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Moderate westerly winds. 5-15 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -12.

THURSDAY: Moderate to strong westerly winds. Light snow. Alpine temperature near -15.

FRIDAY: Strong westerly winds. Light snow. Alpine temperature near -15.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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