Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Jan 7, 2018 - 4:28 PM

Valid until

Jan 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

Conditions are variable across the region. Back off if you encounter warning signs like whumpfing or cracking.

Regular season
Sunday - January 7, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 9, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs can be found at treeline and alpine elevations. Recent extreme winds have stripped some aspects and may have left wind slabs further down slope than normal.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds or shooting cracks.
  • The best and safest riding will be on slopes that have soft snow without any slab properties.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Weak layers are buried within a prime depth range for human triggering. These are most prevalent at and below treeline.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Avoid convex slopes around treeline.
  • Choose slopes that are well supported and have limited consequence.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in the last couple of days, but some whumpfing was felt on Saturday. Earlier in the week, persistent slabs were failing easily with natural and human triggers. With warming or increased load by snow and/or wind-loading, persistent slab activity may increase again.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs may exist lower on the slope than normal, due to recent extreme south-west winds. Windward alpine slopes are scoured; and variable wind slabs are found at treeline and alpine elevations.

A weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below. Avalanches on this layer may be triggered by the weight of a person in certain locations. As temperatures warm, the slab above this weakness may become easy to trigger.

Deeper in the snowpack, an early season rain crust and sugary facets make up the picture. Overall snowpack depths are variable across the region. It's generally shallower in the east.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Strong to gale south-west winds. Flurries. Alpine temperature near -5.

TUESDAY: Strong south-west winds dying out. Around 5 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -2. A further 5-10 cm snow overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Strong south-west winds. Light snow. Alpine temperature near -10.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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