Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Dec 25, 2017 - 4:35 PM

Valid until

Dec 26, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Frigid temperatures have preserved the low density snow, but be cautious in areas where the snow has settled into a slab.

Regular season
Monday - December 25, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - December 26, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 27, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A layer buried 40-80 cm below the surface has the potential to produce surprising avalanches. Triggering this layer is most likely in on steep sheltered slopes at treeline and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.
  • Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Expect slabs at higher elevations where winds have formed hard deposits of snow on the downwind sides of ridges and gullies.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give the recent storm snow plenty of time to bond to underlying layers.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a skier east of the divide triggered a size 2 slab from low on a slope that propagated up and across the slope. The avalanche occurred on a northeast aspect at 1800 m and failed on 50 cm deep crust. This is the only recent report of a human triggered avalanche in the region, but highlights the ability for persistent slab avalanches to have wide propagations. The current forecasters' blog has additional advice on managing the current persistent slab problem (click here).

Snowpack Summary

Cold temperatures are preserving fresh snow from the past week, with up to 80 cm in southern and eastern parts of the region and 50 cm in the Elk Valley. The snow has been deposited into harder wind slabs in exposed terrain, but remains low density in sheltered areas. The main question in the snowpack surrounds the layer sitting beneath the new snow. The layer includes old crusts, wind scoured surfaces, and large feathery surface hoar crystals in sheltered terrain at and below treeline. The distribution of the layer, as well as the properties of the snow above it, is variable. The most suspect areas are where the wind has blown extra snow above this layer and on slopes with preserved surface hoar.

Two crusts that were buried near the end of November can be found lower in the snowpack. A third crust from the end of October exists near the base of the snowpack. Recent testing on these crusts has not produced significant results.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate west winds, treeline temperatures around -22 C.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, strong west winds, treeline temperatures around -20 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with flurries starting in the afternoon, strong west winds, treeline temperatures around -17 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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