Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Dec 22, 2017 - 4:52 PM

Valid until

Dec 23, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Conditions are highly variable. Wind slabs and a buried weak layer warrant a cautious approach to terrain. Read the forecasters' blog here for some great advice!

Regular season
Friday - December 22, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - December 23, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - December 24, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm and wind slabs are sitting over a variable snow surface that may slide readily in some places (but not all). The snow needs time to bond!

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give the recent storm snow plenty of time to bond to underlying layers.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A variable weak layer is buried 40-80 cm below the surface. It is most likely to be reactive in steep, unsupported terrain in sheltered locations where surface hoar crystals may have been preserved.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days, avalanche activity has been reported in the east of the region where higher snow amounts occurred. This includes several large (size 2) explosive-triggered wind slabs on Friday. Smaller slabs have been triggered by skier traffic in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

In the southern and eastern parts of this region, up to 100 cm of snow has fallen in recent storms, combined with variable winds. In the Elk Valley, the amount of new snow is more like 40 cm. The new snow has fallen on a variety of surfaces including old crusts, wind-scoured surfaces and, in sheltered terrain at and below treeline, very large feathery surface hoar crystals. The two crusts that were buried near the end of November can be found lower in the snowpack. A third crust from the end of October exists near the base of the snowpack. Recent testing on this crust have not produced significant results.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Dry and sunny, strong northwest winds, temperatures around -17 C.

SUNDAY: Dry and sunny with some clouds, moderate northwest winds, temperatures around -17 C.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest winds, temperatures around -20 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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