Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Dec 18, 2017 - 4:18 PM

Valid until

Dec 19, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

istorm

Impressive snowfall amounts are forecast but avalanche danger will increase to High where more than 30 cm of snow accumulates. Cold weather after the storm should preserve the powder and provide good riding for days to come.

Regular season
Monday - December 18, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - December 19, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 20, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Touchy storm slabs will develop as new snow accumulates Tuesday afternoon -- especially in the southern half of the region. Consider avoiding avalanche terrain during the height of the storm.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity reported.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of new snow fell by Monday mornining. Isolated pockets of wind slab may be found on easterly aspects in the alpine, while windward slopes have been scoured down to the old rain crust or rock. Sun crusts have formed on southerly slopes.  In sheltered terrain at and below treeline very large feathery surface hoar and sugary facets are on the surface.  The two crusts that were buried near the end of November can now be found approximately 15 to 20cm below the surface. A third crust from the end of October exists near the base of the snowpack.  Recent testing on this crust did not produce significant results.

Weather Forecast

The storm track is set up to follow the Canada - USA border for the next few days putting the South Rockies in the bulls eye for precipitation. The region received around 10 to 15 cm overnight (by Monday morning) and the snow will start cranking up again late on Tuesday morning.

Tuesday: Cloudy with snow starting to fall in the morning. Heavy snowfall in the afternoon and overnight with highest amounts south of Highway 3. Areas like Corbin, Crowsnest, and Castle Mtn should receive between 30 and 50 cm of snow. Further north around Elkford 15 to 25 cm is more realistic. Light east wind. Alpine temperatures around -10 C or colder.

Wednesday: Lingering flurries but not much accumulation. Mix of sun and clouds. Light east wind. Alpine temperatures -15 to -20 C.

Thursday:  Mix of sun and cloud. Dry. Light west wind. Temperatures around -15 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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