Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Nov 26, 2017 - 4:59 PM

Valid until

Nov 27, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Few observations and little information means lots of uncertainty in the forecast. Be cautious in lee areas where wind slabs have formed. If triggered these slabs may have the potential to step-down to a deeper layer.

Regular season
Sunday - November 26, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Watch for wind slabs from redistributed storm snow on north to south slopes at higher elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas. New snow and wind loading may have created wind slabs.
  • If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers including persistent slabs (see above).

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

There are several crusts now buried within the snowpack. As temperatures cool off these deeper layers may become less of a concern until then, assume that anything triggered near the surface may have the potential to step-down to a deeper layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Start with lower angle slopes before gradually working up to steeper objectives.

Avalanche Summary

There is very little information or observes in the region at this time.

To the north, Kananaskis Country reported natural, persistent slab activity to Size 2.5 initiating on a east aspect at 2700m in the alpine and running to treeline, damaging trees on Saturday. While natural avalanche activity is likely to taper off with a return to cooler temperatures and lowering freezing levels, the possibility of triggering a deeper layer in the snowpack still exists.

Snowpack Summary

Last week saw rain drench the snowpack from valley bottom to mountain top, followed by 10-15 cm of snow at higher elevations. Warm temperatures and high freezing levels again on Sunday are suspected to have brought light rain up to 2400m and light snow above. Snowpack depths across the region are suspected to vary from 40-60 cm at 1800m elevation to 80-100 cm near 2300m. Several crusts are expected to exist within the snowpack including the most recent rain crust which is now buried by 10-15 cm of moist snow. Below this crust lies the Halloween crust as well as the early October rain crust at the base of the snowpack, and the snowpack is believed to be moist to ground.

Weather Forecast

Flurries with up to 10-15 cm of snow and strong west winds are forecasted for Sunday night.

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. Moderate to strong west wind. Alpine temperature -8. Freezing level 1100m.

Tuesday: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Moderate to strong west wind. Alpine temperature -5. Freezing level 1200m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Moderate to strong west wind. Alpine temperature -10. Freezing level 1100m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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