Avalanche Forecast
South Columbia
Watch for wind slabs immediately lee of ridge crest, pay attention to cornices and remember that we're still dealing with a persistent slab problem. Choose well supported lines and travel early to take advantage of the overnight re-freeze.
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where loose avalanches may have severe consequences.
- Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.
- Large cornices become weak with daytime heating, avoid traveling on or underneath them.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
A buried persistent weak layer consisting of surface hoar and crust is now 60 to 110 cm below the surface and may remain sensitive to human triggering in the alpine, especially on steep solar aspects in the afternoon.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger persistent slabs.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday natural loose wet avalanches to size 2 were reported on all aspects with the exception of north between 1500 and 2500 m. A skier triggered size 1.5 storm slab was reported from a west/northwest facing feature between 1800 and 2200, failing on a crust.
Loose wet avalanche activity to size 2.5 was widespread Sunday involving all aspects as high as 2500 m. A natural wet slab avalanche was observed on a south facing slope at 2600 m as well.
Snowpack Summary
5 to 15 cm of new snow fell Saturday with moderate southerly wind. This snow rests on a crust that is present on all aspects below 2000 m, and extends up to about 2500 m on south facing aspects. The storm snow be be sitting on surface hoar on polar aspects (north and east) at upper elevations.
The main concern is the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) which is now 60 to 110 cm below the surface. This layer is composed of a crust on all aspects at low elevations. At upper elevations the layer presents as a crust on solar aspects (those that face south and west) and buried surface hoar on polar aspects. The reactivity of this interface has been steadily decreasing and while the likelihood of triggering a deeper persistent slab avalanche is lowering, the consequence of doing so remains high. Persistent slab avalanche activity on polar (north and east) aspects has dramatically decreased and solar (south and west) aspects are expected to be the most suspect over the next few days.
Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are still being reported by professional observers, but are generally considered dormant.
Weather Forecast
Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler Wednesday as we move into a pattern across the province that remains quite "winter-like."
WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud cover with potential for some clearing in the afternoon, freezing level beginning around 1200 m rising to about 1800 m, light west/southwest wind, trace of precipitation possible.
THURSDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 1000 m rising to about 1600 m, light south/southwest wind, 2 to 5 mm of precipitation possible.
FRIDAY: Clear skies in the morning building to broken cloud cover in the afternoon, freezing level beginning around 500 m rising to about 1800 m, light west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.
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Warming temperatures and a bit of sun may destabilize the snow surface and initiate loose wet avalanche activity which will likely be most pronounced on steep south facing features. The likelihood of cornice failure also increases in the afternoon.