Avalanche Forecast

South Columbia

Date issued

Mar 29, 2018 - 4:16 PM

Valid until

Mar 30, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

New snow and wind Thursday night and Friday will add to recent storm slabs that sit on a touchy crust/facet/surface hoar layer. Choose conservative terrain and be especially wary of wind-loaded areas and solar aspects.

Regular season
Thursday - March 29, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - March 30, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs are expected to remain touchy, especially in freshly wind-loaded areas above treeline. South and west aspects hold buried crusts which have proven to be a good sliding layer for the recent storm snow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded slopes, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of widespread natural avalanche activity on all aspects in the alpine from size 1.5 to 3 were received on Tuesday and Wednesday. These were predominantly failing on the recently buried, late-March interface with crown depths of 30-40 cm and up to 100 cm in some areas.

Several skier and remotely (from a distance) triggered avalanches up to size 2 were also reported on Wednesday. These were also in alpine terrain and failed on the March crust/surface hoar layers with crown depths from 25-80 cm.

Skier's on Grizzly Mountain in Roger's Pass reported triggering a size 2 on Wednesday. See MIN report.

On Monday, backcountry skiers triggered a size 2 wind slab near the Asulkan cabin on a northeast aspect near 2050m. The slab's thickness varied from 40-60cm. See the MIN report for more details.

And on Sunday several natural and skier-triggered storm and wind slabs to size 2 were reported, on southeast through northeast aspects between 1900m and 2600m. Some ran on the March 18th layer.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow amounts from Tuesday's storm vary widely across the region and range from about 30- 60 cm, and taper with elevation.

This snow has buried the old interface from late-March which consists of; a supportive crust on solar and all aspects below 1900 m, and old wind slabs, facets and surface hoar on high northerly aspects.

Pockets of surface hoar (buried mid- March) have been reported on shaded aspects at higher elevations and may be found approximately 60-80 cm below the surface.

Deeper persistent weak layers from January and December are still being reported by professional observers but are generally considered dormant.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, west. Alpine temperature near -6. Freezing level 500 m.

FRIDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, northwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light, west. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-5 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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