Avalanche Forecast
South Columbia
Warm storm coming! Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall, and no exposure to overhead hazard.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Several weak layers are buried in the snowpack, creating very large avalanches when triggered.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Make conservative terrain choices, remembering avalanches may be surprisingly large.
- Avoid open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday a human-triggered Size 2.5 avalanche was reported near 2300m on a south west aspect in Glacier National Park. See the MIN report for incident details.
Locally heavy snowfall in the Monashees on Saturday (30cm accumulating in 5 hours!) produced a widespread natural avalanche cycle in the afternoon.
A widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected with Monday's storm, with the potential for some surprisingly large avalanches given how many persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
The current snowpack is complex, with three active weak layers that we are monitoring. The recent storm snow fell with strong south winds at times, producing wind slabs in lee features at treeline and alpine elevations and in open areas below treeline.
1) 70-110 cm of storm snow sits on a crust and/or surface hoar layer from mid-January. The crust is reportedly widespread, with the possible exception of high elevation north aspects. The mid-January surface hoar is 5 to 20 mm in size and was reported at treeline elevations and possibly higher.
2) Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is 100 to 140 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and is found at all elevation bands.
3) Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 120 to 170 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line.
Weather Forecast
Monday: 15 cm snow Sunday overnight into Monday. 15-30 cm additional snow during the day. Moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature warming in the afternoon to near -2. Freezing level rising to 1400m in the afternoon.
Tuesday: 10-15 cm snow. Moderate south-easterly winds. Alpine temperature near -8.
Wednesday: Scattered flurries (5 cm snow possible). Moderate south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -8.
More information can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
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Heavy snowfall and warming temperatures are a recipe for widespread avalanches. A storm slab could step down to a deeper weak layer, creating a surprisingly large avalanche.