Avalanche Forecast
South Columbia
Conditions are tricky with an increasing load over multiple weak layers in the snowpack. Take a conservative approach to your terrain choices. If you see more than 30cm of new snow, consider the danger to be HIGH.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
- Be very cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain, as wind slabs may be deep and touchy.
- Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Several weak layers are buried in the snowpack, creating very large avalanches when triggered.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Make conservative terrain choices, remembering avalanches may be surprisingly large.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday we received preliminary reports of a human-triggered Size 2.5 avalanche in Glacier National park, on a south east aspect near 2400m.
Also on Saturday we received reports of heavy snowfall in the Monashees with 30 cm accumulating in 5 hours! A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred in these areas Saturday afternoon.
Although the spike of avalanche activity from Wednesday has decreased, on Friday we still received reports of storm slabs to Size 2.5 running on northerly aspects above 1900m. Several persistent slabs to Size 3 were also reported on Friday, running naturally and also directly triggered by explosives (and showing good propagation).
With incremental loading on Sunday, human triggering will remain likely and avalanches could be surprisingly large due to the structure of the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
Some areas in the Monashees received significantly more snow (30cm +) than was forecast on Saturday, resulting in a widespread natural avalanche cycle in the afternoon.
Elsewhere in the region, 70 to 100 cm of storm snow sits on a layer of crust and/or surface hoar from mid-January. The crust is widespread, with the possible exception of high elevation north aspects.
The recent storm snow fell with strong south winds, producing wind slabs in lee features at treeline and alpine elevations and in open areas below treeline.
Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is buried 70 to 110 cm deep. Recent snowpack tests have shown sudden fracture characters with moderate loads and high propagation potential, as well as other signs of instability such as whumpfs, cracking and avalanches. Yet another persistent weak layer buried mid-December is 100 to 150 cm deep and consists of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination. It is most problematic at and below tree line.
A rain crust buried in November is 150 to 200 cm deep. While generally considered dormant, occasional activity has shown that it may react where it is less deeply buried.
Weather Forecast
Sunday: 10-15 cm snow. Moderate south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -6.
Monday: 20-30 cm snow. Moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature warming to near -2. Freezing level 1700m.
Tuesday: 10-15 cm snow. Moderate south-easterly winds. Alpine temperature near -10.
More information can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
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Recent snow and wind have built slabs that can be triggered by the weight of a person. A storm slab could step down to a deeper weak layer, creating a surprisingly large avalanche.