Avalanche Forecast
South Columbia
The snowpack is complex. Three active weak layers remain sensitive to human triggering. The easy solution is to choose simple terrain free of overhead hazard as the snowpack adjusts.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be very cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain, wind slabs may be deep and touchy.
- Carefully investigate the bond of the new snow before stepping out into more challenging terrain.
- If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
The riding conditions may be great, but we can't forget about the persistent weak layers lurking in our snowpack that remain quite capable of producing very large avalanches. Keep the terrain choices reined in as the snowpack adjusts to the new load.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Numerous large avalanches have run on these layers in well supported, treed terrain.
- Good day to make conservative terrain choices and watch for clues of instability.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity on Thursday included wind slabs, storm slabs and persistent slabs. Several wind slabs and storm slabs were reported to be running to size 2.5 on all aspects in the alpine and tree line. These were mostly natural triggers with a few human triggered to size 1.5. Additionally, there were a few persistent slab avalanches remotely triggered to size 2 on northerly aspects at tree line.
On Wednesday wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were human triggered on northwest, north and northeast facing features between 2000 m and 2150 m. A size 2.0 persistent slab avalanche was human triggered on a northeast facing feature at 2200 m, this slab failed on the early January weak layer. There was also a natural size 2.5 glide crack failure on a southeast/east facing feature at 1600 m. Bear in mind that this activity occurred before the storm.
Snowpack Summary
The current snowpack is complex, we now have three active weak layers that we are monitoring.
20-40cm of storm snow now sits on a newly formed crust and/or surface hoar interface. Prior to the storm the crust was reportedly widespread; high elevation north is likely one of the few crust-free zones. The now buried surface hoar is 5 to 20mm in size and was reportedly present at all elevations before the storm. Looking deeper, a persistent weak layer known as the early January interface is 50 to 90 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and was present to at least 2100 m, possibly higher. Recent snowpack tests have shown sudden results with moderate loads. Additionally, yet another persistent weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination, is buried 80 to 150 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line. This interface is not thought to be present in the alpine.
A rain crust buried in November is 150 to 200cm deep and is thought to have gone dormant for the time being.
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY: Mix of sun, cloud and isolated flurries / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -9 / Freezing level 1100m
SUNDAY: Flurries, accumulation10-15cm / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -10 / Freezing level 900m
MONDAY: Scattered flurries, accumulation 5cm / Light west wind / Alpine temperature -10 / Freezing level 800m
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20 to 40cm sits on a combination of crust and surface hoar. Expect the slab to be deeper in wind exposed features and to be sensitive to human triggering.