Avalanche Forecast

South Columbia

Date issued

Dec 26, 2017 - 4:38 PM

Valid until

Dec 27, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Steady is the trend. Cold temperatures mean that persistent slab problems will be slow to heal. Stay watchful for signs of wind effect and slab formation at lower elevations.

Regular season
Tuesday - December 26, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 27, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - December 28, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A weak layer of surface hoar buried 50-80 cm deep has potential to produce large avalanches where the overlying snow has settled into a cohesive slab. The greatest caution is needed around steeper, sheltered slopes at treeline and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Buried surface hoar is more likely to be preserved in sheltered openings at and below tree line.
  • Watch for signs of slab formation, such as wind effect, whumphing, or shooting cracks.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Shifting winds have been redistributing storm snow into wind slabs on a variety of aspects. Exercise extra caution at lower elevations where winds may have formed a slab over a touchy surface hoar layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of variable wind loading patterns.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Monday include observations of a recent Size 2 persistent slab release on a north aspect at 1800 metres, just northeast of Nakusp. Sunday's reports included observations of several older Size 1-1.5 natural wind slab releases, mainly on south aspects in the alpine. One report showed a skier-triggered Size 1 persistent slab releasing from a north aspect at 2200 metres. Reports from previous days include several more observations of wind slab releases from Size 1-2. Recent observations of persistent slab releases have been more limited, with similar size ranges but generally lower elevation ranges and more focused to north aspects.

Persistent slab avalanche danger remains an ongoing concern in areas where last week's storm snow consolidates into a slab above the December 15 interface. In areas where new snow has not yet consolidated into a slab, expect continued potential for triggering loose dry avalanches in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Last week's storm brought 50-80 cm of new snow to the region. Predominantly north winds have since redistributed this storm snow into wind slabs on a range of aspects at higher elevations while cold temperatures have inhibited slab formation elsewhere. Cold has also worked to decrease cohesion and reactivity in older wind slabs.

The storm snow lies over a variety of old surfaces, including large surface hoar (weak, feather-like crystals), crusts formed by sun or wind, and sugary facets. The bond at this old snow interface is of critical importance in areas where the overlying snow has consolidated into a slab. The most concerning areas are those that saw pronounced surface hoar development before the storm, such as sheltered areas at and below treeline. Recent snowpack tests show wide ranging reactivity at this interface but suggest that it may be most reactive on northerly aspects.

A crust formed by rain in late November is another major feature in the snowpack, found approximately 90-120cm deep at tree line elevations. Recent evidence from adjacent regions suggests it may be reactive in steep, variably loaded terrain features in the alpine.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a 1-3 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures of -15.

Thursday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 4-8 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Light west winds. Alpine high temperatures of -10.

Friday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Light east winds. Alpine high temperatures of -12

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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