Avalanche Forecast

South Columbia

Date issued

Dec 1, 2017 - 5:00 PM

Valid until

Dec 2, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

New snow and wind on Friday and overnight is expected to create touchy storm slabs that are reactive to human triggers. Be especially cautious in wind exposed terrain at treeline and above.

Regular season
Friday - December 1, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 2, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 3, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind on Friday/night is expected to create touchy storm slabs that are reactive to human triggers. Be especially cautious in wind exposed terrain at treeline and above.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, or recent natural avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, numerous small (size 1) human triggered storm slabs were reported on all aspects at treeline and above in this region. We currently have very limited observations in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Between 30 and 45cm of new snow has fallen in the past few days. I'd expect reactive storm slabs to exist in wind-exposed terrain or in places where the recent storm snow has a weak bond with a crust which formed in late November and can be found around 60cm below the surface.

Another feature in the snowpack is a 3-5 cm thick crust which was formed around Halloween and can be found approximately 100cm down at treeline elevations. This layer is generally thought to be stubborn to trigger; however, it may be worth investigating if your travel plans involve large triggers on big, steep, unsupported terrain.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly with elevation. Recent reports suggest the average depth is 200+cm in the alpine, 100-180cm at treeline, and decreasing rapidly below treeline where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region and it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY/NIGHT: 5-15 cm new snow expected by Saturday morning / Moderate to strong southwesterly ridgetop winds.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1000m.

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level valley bottom.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate westerly ridgetop winds / Freezing level valley bottom.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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