Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Mar 24, 2018 - 3:35 PM

Valid until

Mar 25, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

In the northern part of the region watch for wind slab development at upper elevations. A buried surface hoar layer may also still be reactive in these areas. Meanwhile in the south, generally safe avalanche conditions are present at all elevations.

Regular season
Saturday - March 24, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - March 25, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - March 26, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Moderate to strong southerly wind combined with recent snowfall has formed new slabs at upper elevations particularly in northern parts of the region. These slabs overlie the old surface of crusts and surface hoar.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes if solar radiation becomes strong.
  • If triggered wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday there were reports of isolated natural and skier triggered storm slab avalanches (size 1-1.5) from 15 to 25 deep on wind-affected convex and ridge top features in the alpine.

Thursday there were reports of skier triggered size 1-1.5 wind slabs 10-30 cm deep on leeward, north-facing slopes at ridge top as well as sloughing below 1700 m in steep terrain.

Last weekend, on Sunday a skier triggered avalanche was reported from around the Duffey on a north/northeast facing feature between 1900 and 2000 m. The size 2 avalanche failed on the March 8th surface hoar with a crown depth of 20 cm. And on Saturday two size 1.5 skier triggered avalanches were reported from steep northeast facing terrain at 2200 m on the Duffey. The slabs were up to 20 cm in depth, failing on the March 8th surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

Thursday and Friday's storm snow (10- 20 cm) is sitting on a slippery crust that is present at all elevations on solar aspects. Low elevation polar aspects also have a crust, but treeline and alpine elevations feature a mix of large surface hoar and surface facets.

In the north of the region, polar aspects (those that face north and east) are harboring cold snow and a surface hoar interface buried early March that is about 30 cm below the surface. This layer exists at alpine and treeline elevations, but it is not everywhere. This layer has recently produced large human triggered avalanches in the north of the region but has not been reactive in the south of the region.

Also in the north of the region a weak layer buried mid-February is about 40 to 80 cm below the surface and has been reactive in snowpack tests. The layer is composed of sugary facets, a sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline.

In the south of the region, around the Coquihalla and in Manning Park, the recent storm snow overlies a recent crust that caps a well settled snowpack.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Increasing cloud in afternoon. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Alpine temperature near -8. Freezing level 1000 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-5 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-6 cm. Ridge wind strong, west. Alpine temperature near -2. Freezing level 1800 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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