Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Mar 12, 2018 - 3:45 PM

Valid until

Mar 13, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Expect avalanche danger to increase as the temperature rises through the day. Danger ratings are rated for the heat of the day when the likelihood avalanches triggering is highest.

Regular season
Monday - March 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - March 13, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - March 14, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow combined with predominantly southwest winds have created wind slabs in the lee of terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Sun combined with rising freezing levels will weaken the surface snow on slopes exposed to the sun.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Sunday show primarily solar induced avalanches size 1.5-2 on south and west facing sun exposed slopes during the heat of the day. On Saturday a skier triggered size 2 wind slab avalanche was reported from the north of the region on a northeast aspect in the alpine. There was also a report of natural size 2 wind slab avalanche on a northwest aspect in the alpine. Avalanche activity on Friday was reported as either loose dry to size 1 or wind slab activity to size 1-1.5 on northerly aspects at tree line.

Snowpack Summary

Recent new snow has been redistributed by southerly winds at upper elevations and has now been affected by above freezing temperatures except for high (above 1800m) northerly facing slopes. The new snow sits on a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes, cold dry snow and possibly small surface hoar on shady aspects.

In northern parts of the region a weak layer buried mid-February is about 40-50 cm below the surface and has been reactive in some snowpack tests. The layer is composed of sugary facets, a sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline. The snowpack is well settled in southern parts of the region i.e.Coquihalla and Manning Park.

Variable winds in the past month have created cornices on many alpine ridgelines. They become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the strong late-winter sun shines down upon them on clear days.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: mainly cloudy with sunny breaks and wet flurries in the afternoon / Moderate south wind / Alpine temperature 6 / Freezing level 2600m 

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries or rain showers / Light west wind / Alpine temperature -1 / Freezing level 1300m 

THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Light west wind / Alpine temperature 0 / Freezing level 1600m 

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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