Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Mar 7, 2018 - 5:17 PM

Valid until

Mar 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Danger will increase late on Thursday and into Friday as new snow accumulates.

Regular season
Wednesday - March 7, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - March 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - March 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Fresh wind slabs will build throughout the day at higher elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect. New snow and warming will likely make cornices extra brittle.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Watch out for overhead hazards, such as cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet avalanches were observed in steep south-facing terrain on Wednesday and Tuesday. Most were small (size 1), but a few in the Coquihalla reached size 2.

Last weekend, a few size 2 natural slab avalanches were reported in the northern part of the region on a range of aspects around 2000 m.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will accumulate on Thursday and Friday and form extra deep deposits in wind loaded terrain. The new snow is falling on a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes, cold dry snow on polar aspects, and wind affected snow at upper elevations.

In northern parts of the region the mid-February weak layer is about 40 cm below the surface and has been reactive in some snowpack tests. The layer is composed of sugary facets, a sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline. No recent avalanche activity has been reported on these layers.

The snowpack is well settled in southern parts of the region (e.g. Coquihalla and Manning Park).

Variable winds in the past month have created cornices on many alpine ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the strong late-winter sun shines down upon them on clear days.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Flurries increasing throughout the day with up to 5 cm in the north and up to 10 cm in the south, moderate south wind, freezing level rising to around 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Another 10-20 cm of snow and then clearing in the afternoon, light wind, freezing level dropping to around 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny with freezing level rising to around 1600 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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