Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Mar 5, 2018 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Mar 6, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Cornices and surface snow could become weak when hit by direct sunlight.

Regular season
Monday - March 5, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - March 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - March 7, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent storm snow may still be reactive on steep wind-loaded features, particularly on south-facing slopes where it sits above a buried sun crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Brief periods of sun could quickly initiate natural avalanche activity.
  • The recent snow is now hiding wind slabs that were recently sensitive to human triggering.
  • Avoid wind loaded terrain features, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Continued snowfall and strong wind from around the clock has formed large cornices on many ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect, especially when the sun is out.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Watch out for overhead hazards, such as cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a large natural avalanche (size 2) was observed on a sparsely treed north-facing slope at 2000 m in the northern part of the region.

On Saturday, one natural size 2 slab was observed on a south aspect at 1900 m in the Duffey area and another smaller slab was reported on a steep wind-loaded feature in the Coquihalla area. Wet loose avalanches were observed in steep south-facing terrain throughout the region.

On Friday, wind slabs were sensitive to skier triggering to size 2 on north and northeast facing slopes around 2000 m. These slabs were 10 to 25 m wide with crowns averaging 40 cm in depth.

Snowpack Summary

A thin sun crust has formed on solar aspects and the surface is wind affected in most exposed terrain. Southern parts of the region, such as the Coquihalla, received up to 100 cm of snow last week while northern regions received closer to 40 cm.

The mid-February weak layers are now 80 to 120 cm deep in the southern part of the region and about 40 cm deep in northern parts of the region. These interfaces consists of wind hardened snow, facets, a sun crust on solar aspects, and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline. Some of these layers have been reactive in snowpack tests, but no recent avalanche activity has been reported on these layers. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.

Variable winds in the past month have created cornices on many alpine ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the strong late-winter sun shines down upon them on clear days.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Clouds clearing in the morning and then sunny in the afternoon, light west wind, freezing level rising to around 1000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, light to moderate southwest wind, freezing level rising to around 1300 m.

THURSDAY: Flurries increasing throughout the day with up to 5 cm of snow by the afternoon, moderate southwest wind, freezing level rising to around 1200 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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