Avalanche Forecast
South Coast Inland
Fresh snow fall and westerly winds Tuesday will likely form a new round of shallow wind slabs that rest above wind slabs formed over the weekend. Seek out wind sheltered terrain where you can avoid the wind slab problem and find the best riding.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Start with simple terrain and gather information before thinking about more committing features.
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
- The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.
Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Large cornices have formed along ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect, especially if the sun is shining.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch out for overhead hazards, such as cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.
- Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday wind slabs up to size 2 were sensitive to skier triggering on northeast, north and northwest facing features between 1950 and 2100 m. Small wind slabs failed naturally and were human triggered Saturday to size 1 on south and southeast facing features between 1750 and 1900 m.
Snowpack Summary
20 to 40 cm of new snow fell over the weekend accompanied by strong winds that were predominantly out of the south, southwest and west. This wind event formed widespread wind slabs that likely extend down into treeline. The new snow rests on the February 23 weak layer that consists of wind hardened snow, facets, a sun crust on solar aspects and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline. In the southern portion of the region a widespread crust is down 40 to 80 cm below the surface. Well-consolidated snow exists below the crust.
Variable winds in the past month have created cornices on all aspects in the alpine. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the strong late-winter sun shines down upon them on clear days.
Weather Forecast
A weak upper trough Tuesday should deliver a small shot of precipitation and wind before a vigorous low makes landfall on Wednesday which has potential to bring significant precipitation. Unfortunately the weather models have not yet agreed on a solution with regard to track and intensity, but there will likely be less uncertainty as we get closer to Wednesday. Stay tuned for more details.
TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning at valley bottom rising to around 500 m in the afternoon, moderate to strong west wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1000 m, potentially strong to extreme south/southwest wind, latest model run shows about 10 cm of snow. Stay tuned for more details.
THURSDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level around 1300 m, light to moderate southeast wind, 1 to 5 of snow possible.
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Strong wind and snowfall over the weekend formed slabs that may remain sensitive to human triggering. Moderate to strong west wind and new snow Tuesday will likely form fresh shallow wind slabs at upper elevations. Seek out wind sheltered terrain.