Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Feb 21, 2018 - 4:11 PM

Valid until

Feb 22, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Natural avalanche activity has tapered but wind slabs continue to be reactive to human triggering. Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, especially when the sun is out.

Regular season
Wednesday - February 21, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - February 22, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - February 23, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong winds from various directions (primarily north and east) have blown recent snow into reactive slabs at higher elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Approach steep lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large cornices linger along ridgelines. They are unstable, unpredictable and demand respect, especially when the sun is shining.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger slabs from slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, reports of several natural loose dry avalanches up to size 1 from steep south facing rocky terrain.

Wind slabs are becoming  more stubborn to human triggers but remain the primary avalanche concern for the region. Respect overhead hazards like cornices, especially if Thursday is sunny. A large trigger (like cornice fall) could initiate a large slab avalanche from the slope below.

Snowpack Summary

Extensive wind effect exists at treeline and above. In exposed terrain, strong north and east winds have scoured windward slopes and loaded lee slopes. You can still find low density snow from last Saturday's storm stashed in sheltered trees at treeline and below. The cold temperatures are promoting settlement and surface facetting in the recent storm snow. In southern parts of the region, the new snow (40-50 cm) sits above a widespread crust with well settled snow below the crust. In northern parts of the region up to 30 cm of recent storm snow exists.

Avalanche professionals are still monitoring the mid-January crust and are avoiding shallow rocky slopes where triggering this layer is most likely. This layer is now 80-150 cm deep, but a heavy trigger (cornice?) or the next major storm (warming and loading) could potentially wake up this layer.

Weather Forecast

New snow amounts on Friday will vary through the region. The Coquihalla (southern areas) could see 5-15 cm of new snow, while the Duffy (northern areas) may only receive 3-8 cm of new snow.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels 500 m. Ridgetop winds moderate from the North.

Friday: Overcast with new snow amounts 5-15 cm. Alpine temperatures near -5 and ridgetop wind strong from the southwest.

Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud in the North and overcast in the South. Snow amounts 5-10 cm with less in the North. Alpine temperatures near -5 with freezing levels 600 m. Light to moderate winds from the West.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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