Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Feb 20, 2018 - 4:17 PM

Valid until

Feb 21, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

The snow is heavily wind-affected. Stick to sheltered trees to find the best and safest riding.

Regular season
Tuesday - February 20, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - February 21, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - February 22, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong winds from various directions (primarily north and east) have blown recent snow into reactive slabs at higher elevations.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Approach steep lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger a slab from the slope below.

Avalanche Summary

Recently. strong north wind has formed wind slabs at all elevations on southerly slopes. On Monday, natural wind slab avalanches and cornice failures were reported up to size 3. These failed on NE-S aspects above 1800 m. Loose dry sluffing from steeper terrain features was also noted. With little change in the weather forecast natural avalanche activity will subside, but human triggers remain possible.

Snowpack Summary

In sheltered terrain, cold weather is preserving low density snow from the recent storms. In exposed terrain, strong north and east winds have scoured windward slopes and loaded lee slopes. Storm totals from Saturday range from 30 cm in the Duffey area and other northern parts of the region, 50 cm around the Coquihalla, and 40 cm around Manning Park.

In southern parts of the region, the new snow sits above a widespread crust with well settled snow below the crust.

In northern parts of the region, avalanche professionals are still monitoring the mid-January crust and are avoiding shallow rocky slopes where triggering this layer is most likely. This layer is now 80-150 cm deep, but a heavy trigger (cornice?) or the next major storm (warming and loading) could potentially wake up this layer. Cornice growth has also been reported in northern parts of the region, which could be a potential trigger for an avalanches on the slopes below them.

Weather Forecast

A fairly benign weather pattern through the forecast period.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with some sunny periods and a chance of flurries. An alpine high temperature of -13 with generally light westerly winds and some strong gusts.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with an alpine high temperature of -7. Ridgetop winds light to moderate from the northeast.

Friday: Cloudy with new snow 5-15 cm with the higher accumulations in the south on the Coquihalla. Alpine temperatures near -5 and ridgetop winds moderate with strong gusts from the southwest.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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