Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Feb 9, 2018 - 4:19 PM

Valid until

Feb 10, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

A spike in natural avalanche activity may occur due to strong solar effect.

Regular season
Friday - February 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - February 10, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - February 11, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Reactive wind slabs exist, especially on leeward slopes where more wind loading has occurred.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snowfall and strong winds have created large fragile cornices. Cornices are unpredictable and demand respect. Give them a wide berth from above and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, the southern part of the region reported a natural slab avalanche size 3.5 from a NE-SE aspect near 1800 m and numerous wet slabs up to size 2.5. An avalanche control mission using explosives in the northern part of the region saw wind slab results up to size 1.5, only running in the surface snow and not stepping down deeper.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall totals are highly variable. In the south, up to 40 cm of new snow fell bringing the alpine totals up to 60 cm this week. In the north, new snow totals are half that and rapidly decreasing below 1800m. This new snow sits on old wind slabs in alpine locations and has buried a crust at treeline. At lower treeline and below elevations, warm temperatures and rain have saturated the upper snowpack. A solid surface crust will likely form with forecast cooler temperatures.

Below the surface, 80-150 cm down in the mid pack sits the mid- January crust. It generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, I would remain suspect of this deeper layer while the snowpack adjusts to the new load. Thinner snowpack areas may have a higher likelihood of  an avalanche failing on this layer. Large, looming cornices exist, they are fragile and demand respect.

Weather Forecast

The weather pattern has taken a dramatic shift as the arctic ridge becomes the dominant weather feature through the weekend, bringing colder temperatures and mostly clear skies.

Saturday: Mostly clear skies. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels 1100 m. Ridgetop winds light from the West.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels 800 m. Ridgetop winds light from the northwest.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Alpine temperatures near -10 and freezing levels 600 m. Ridgetop winds light from the northeast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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