Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Jan 11, 2018 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Jan 12, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jlammers

If Friday night's storm arrives early, the avalanche danger may be higher than posted.

Regular season
Thursday - January 11, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - January 12, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - January 13, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow and wind on Friday afternoon is expected to promote new storm slab development and increase the avalanche danger towards the end of the day. If the new snow arrives early, the avalanche danger may be higher than posted.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious in lee features above treeline, old wind slabs rest on a buried crust.
  • Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was reported on Tuesday or Wednesday. A new round of storm slab activity is expected on Friday afternoon and into Saturday with forecast wind and snow.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 40 cm of recent storm snow (with more in the Coquihalla area) now rests on the the January 6th crust. This crust formed after temperatures cooled last Saturday, locking up the previously moist surface snow. On Sunday moderate to strong southwest winds redistributed snow and formed wind slabs in lee features at and above treeline.

A widespread melt-freeze crust formed in mid-December is still an issue in the northern portion of the region where it is down 40 to 50 cm below the surface. Recent observations have shown that there are rounding facets underneath the crust on shady aspects at and above treeline. Recent snowpack tests have produced easy sudden-planar results on solar aspects at and above treeline on this interface as well. Around the Coquihalla this interface is not problematic and is thought to be part of a well bonded mid-pack.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.

Weather Forecast

Friday: About 5cm of the new snow with an additional 10-15cm overnight / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 600m

Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1400m

Sunday: Mostly clear skies / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 2300m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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