Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Jan 3, 2018 - 4:59 PM

Valid until

Jan 4, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

The odd small wind slab may still be human triggerable in more extreme terrain. The picture should start to change on Saturday as storm snow returns to the South Coast.

Regular season
Wednesday - January 3, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - January 4, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - January 5, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Aided by time and warmth, the storm snow has settled into a stubborn old slab. For the most part, this slab is bonding well to the underlying surface but there may still be a wind slab issue in more extreme terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Caution with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday reported avalanche activity was limited to snow balling and pin wheels on north aspects.

Snowpack Summary

On Sunday a slight crust began to form on south and southwest facing aspects as warm temperatures and sun combined to moisten the snow surface. By Tuesday the upper 5 cm of the snowpack had started to become moist, even on upper elevation northeast facing features.

On December 28th and 29th two successive storms produced 50 to 80 cm of snow. On December 29th and 30th strong to extreme winds out of the southwest, south and southeast created widespread wind effect. Time and warm temperatures have allowed this snow to settle and bond well with the underlying surface. The exception may be with wind slabs in more extreme terrain and isolated pockets of buried surface hoar below treeline. A widespread melt-freeze crust may still be an issue in the northern portion of the region where it's down 50 to 70 cm below the surface, but is likely trending towards dormancy. Around the Coquihalla this interface is now thought to be part of a well bonded mid-pack.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.

Weather Forecast

The weather pattern is changing, albeit slowly. As the ridge shifts east, a trough pattern on the west coast begins to bring cloud and precipitation beginning Thursday.

THURSDAY: A few clouds in the morning with cloud cover increasing through the day. Light temperature inversion in place, cool air in the valley, warmer above freezing air between 1500 m and 2500 m, light to moderate south/southwest wind, no precipitation expected.

FRIDAY: Overcast, light temperature inversion in place, cool air in the valley, warmer above freezing air between 1500 m and 2500 m, light to moderate southerly wind, 1 to 2 mm of precipitation expected.

SATURDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 900 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, 1 to 3 mm of precipitation expected.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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