Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Dec 19, 2017 - 4:41 PM

Valid until

Dec 20, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Storm snow will take time to settle. Stick to simple terrain on Wednesday and avoid all overhead hazard.

Regular season
Tuesday - December 19, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 20, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - December 21, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Tuesday's storm brought heavy snowfall to the south of the region with moderate to strong (north) westerly winds. Give things time to settle out and stick to simple terrain with no consequence or overhead hazard.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low / no consequence.
  • If off-trail travel is deep and punchy, avoid avalanche terrain, including runouts.

Avalanche Summary

No new reported; however, a widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected in the south of the region with Tuesday's storm.

Snowpack Summary

The south of the region has seen impressive storm snow totals (50-70cm) since Sunday night, compared to the north of the region, which received 15-25cm. This new snow sits on crusts of variable thickness that formed on almost all aspects in early December. On steep southerly aspects the crust is supportive, whereas on northerly aspects the crust is quite thin and variable.

Moderate to strong (north) westerly winds have redistributed the new snow, creating deep drifts on down wind (lee) features.

Lower down, the snowpack is well settled and has not been showing any signs of activity on the late November rain crust.

Treeline snow depths are approximately 1.4 m throughout the region.

Weather Forecast

After Tuesday's storm it will clear up and we'll have dry weather with cool temperatures for the foreseeable future.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing in the afternoon. Ridge wind moderate northerly. Freezing level at the surface, alpine high temperatures of -8

THURSDAY: Clouds and isolated flurries. Ridge wind moderate from the north west. Temperature near -3. Freezing level at the surface.

FRIDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Ridge wind moderate from the north east. Temperature near -7. Freezing level at the surface.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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