Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Dec 16, 2017 - 5:24 PM

Valid until

Dec 17, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Fresh storm slabs may bond poorly to a melt-freeze crust on Sunday. If you see more than 30cm new snow on a firm crust, consider the danger to be HIGH.

Regular season
Saturday - December 16, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - December 17, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - December 18, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Take a cautious approach to the mountains on Sunday, especially if you see more than 20cm of new snow on a firm crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, shooting cracks or recent natural avalanches.
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Summary

Small natural dry loose avalanches to Size 1 were reported in the north of the region (Duffey Lake zone) on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

About 10cm of new snow covers a crust that formed on almost all aspects: the exception being shaded north aspects at upper elevations, where the old snow surface consisted of dry, sugary snow.

Lower down, the snowpack is well settled and overlies the late November rain crust, now 20-50 cm deep. Snowpack tests in the Duffey Lake area produced hard, sudden test results associated with this layer.

Treeline snow depths are approximately 1 m throughout the region.

Weather Forecast

Significant storm snow totals are forecast for the south of the region (Coquihalla area), with lesser amounts in the north.

SUNDAY: Snow. Accumulation 5-20 cm (highest amounts for Coquihalla area). Ridge winds moderate from the southwest. Temperature -2. Freezing level 700 m.

MONDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm (highest amounts for Coquihalla area). Ridge winds moderate from the west. Temperature -4. Freezing level 700 m.

TUESDAY: Snow. Accumulation 10-20 cm. Ridge winds moderate from the north. Temperature -4. Freezing level 700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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