Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Dec 11, 2017 - 4:40 PM

Valid until

Dec 12, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

With warm temperatures expected to continue for the next few days watch for changing surface conditions.  Expect crusts to breakdown quickly with moist or wet snow on solar aspects, while dry snow may still exist in shaded areas.

Regular season
Monday - December 11, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - December 12, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - December 13, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

It may still be possible to trigger moist or wet snow on steep or unsupported terrain features. Once moving these releases can gain mass quickly and catch you off guard.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps, where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Use extra caution on solar slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet avalanches up to size 2 were observed on northerly aspects along Duffey Lake Road on Sunday. Last week, numerous small loose wet avalanches (size 1) were observed on steep south and west-facing slopes on Wednesday and Thursday, while glide avalanches to size 2 were also observed on steep, smooth rock slabs around the Coquihalla on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

The recent alpine inversion and warm temperatures have created a variety of surfaces across the region depending on aspect. On southerly aspects, a spring-like surface crust has formed but will breakdown quickly with warm temperatures and high freezing levels expected to continue. On shaded north aspects, surface hoar and surface facets have formed, however at least in the Duffey Lake area, these were moistened and melted by cloudy skies and warm temperatures on Sunday. The upper snowpack is and well settled and appears to have bonded well to the late November rain crust, now 20-50 cm deep. Recent snowpack tests have produced hard, resistant compression test results on small facets associated with this layer. Treeline snow depths are approximately 1 m throughout the region.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge winds light from the west. Temperature 1. Freezing level 2000m.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light from the northeast. Temperature 2. Freezing level 2000m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light from the southwest. Temperature 3. Freezing level 3000m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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