Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Apr 16, 2018 - 4:01 PM

Valid until

Apr 17, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

We should see sun, clouds, and localized flurries. The new snow won't bond well to a crust and the sun will further weaken it. Be cautious on south slopes when it is sunny and watch your overhead exposure, as cornice falls could trigger avalanches.

Regular season
Monday - April 16, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - April 17, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - April 18, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

20 to 30 cm of snow fell on Monday, which overlies a melt-freeze crust in most areas. The snow likely won't bond well to the crust and could produce large avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Observe for the bond of new snow with the old surface before committing into avalanche terrain.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The sun will rapidly weaken the snow surface. Expect loose wet avalanches, particularly on steep southerly terrain and near rocks. Watch your overhead exposure, as they can grow and become large and destructive.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
  • Avoid steep slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region.  From what we have heard, skiers could easily trigger small loose wet avalanches on Sunday.  Natural loose wet avalanches were also observed in treeline and alpine terrain, particularly on southerly aspects.  Large slab avalanches were also observed, which may have released during the storm on Friday.

We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 to 30 cm of snow on Monday fell on a melt-freeze crust formed by Sunday’s sunshine and warm air temperatures.   On shady slopes in the alpine, the snow fell on wind slabs formed from strong south winds early in the weekend.  A thick melt-freeze crust exists below this, which is about 40 to 60 cm deep.  The snow below this is well-settled and strong.

Below about 1000 m, a spring snowpack exists.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: A mix of sun and clouds with intermittent flurries, light to moderate west winds, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000 m.

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and clouds, light east winds, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 1200 m.

THURSDAY: Sunny with afternoon clouds, light southwest winds, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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