Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Apr 13, 2018 - 3:52 PM

Valid until

Apr 14, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Heavy precipitation and strong south winds Friday night into Saturday has built storm and wind slabs where the precipitation fell as snow.

Regular season
Friday - April 13, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - April 14, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - April 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Heavy snow at upper elevations is building new, reactive storm slabs. Watch for new slabs in areas when the rain switches to snow. The snow will fall with strong southwest winds, so expect thicker slabs in lee features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rising freezing levels and rain will rapidly weaken the snow surface initiating loose wet avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Summary

We have received very little information on avalanche activity for this region. From the little we have heard, there were no new avalanches to report from Wednesday or Thursday Forecast heavy precipitation should mean that the likelihood of triggering avalanches is on the rise at upper elevations.

We would very much appreciate it if you spend a moment to submit any observations you have to the Mountain Information Network here, even if it is just a photo. Thanks!

Snowpack Summary

Heavy precipitation is forecast Friday afternoon and evening. If it falls as snow at upper elevations, it will build reactive storm slabs which sit over a predominant thick crust for Saturday. It is difficult to predict where and when rain will switch to snow, but expect the transition to happen as you approach mountain top.

Below tree line, a spring snowpack exists. Rain has saturated upper snowpack. Forecast rain will continue this trend.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Rain or wet snow, accumulation 20-30cm mostly overnight Friday into Saturday / Strong south wind / Alpine temperature 1 / Freezing level 1300 m

SUNDAY: Wet flurries / Light west wind / Alpine temperature 2 / Freezing level 1100m

MONDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods / Light west wind / Alpine temperature 1 / Freezing level 1100m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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