Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Apr 7, 2018 - 3:41 PM

Valid until

Apr 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

A substantial amount of precipitation has fallen, with rain at lower elevations and snow at high elevations. Expect slabs where snow fell and loose, weak snow where rain fell.

Regular season
Saturday - April 7, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - April 8, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - April 9, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Snowfall at higher elevations has formed new slabs. Observe for the bond of new snow with the old surface before committing into avalanche terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
  • Observe for signs of instability, such as cracking and avalanche activity.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

More rain early Sunday morning will continue to weaken the upper snowpack. Watch out in steep and gullied terrain, where small avalanches can build and have severe consequences.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday and Friday, it was easy to initiate large wet loose avalanche in steep terrain below treeline.  The avalanches were generally slow but ran far.

Snowpack Summary

Around 30 to 80 mm of rain fell on the snowpack up to around treeline between Thursday and Saturday, with precipitation as snow above. In alpine terrain, the snow has created new storm slabs. This snow overlies a thick crust in most areas except for possibly shady aspects in alpine terrain. The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.

At treeline and below treeline elevations, a spring snowpack exists. Rain saturated and weakened the upper snowpack.  The wet snow may freeze overnight at higher elevations with cool temperatures.  The mid and lower snowpack are strong.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with early-morning precipitation, accumulation 10 to 20 mm water equivalent, light westerly winds, treeline temperature 1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, light southerly winds, treeline temperature 1 C, freezing level 1500 m rising to 2200 m by the late afternoon.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with afternoon precipitation, accumulation 10 mm, treeline temperature 4 C, freezing level 2600 m dropping to 2000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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