Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Mar 26, 2018 - 4:01 PM

Valid until

Mar 27, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Heavy precipitation, wind, and rising freezing levels are expect Monday night and Tuesday. High alpine areas will receive snow while at lower elevations a mix of heavy snow and rain are expected. Avalanche activity will increase with the storm.

Regular season
Monday - March 26, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - March 27, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - March 28, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Significant snow and southwest winds have formed reactive storm slabs. These may be surprisingly deep and touchy in wind loaded areas near treeline and in the alpine. Rising freezing levels and rain will increase natural avalanche activity.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Watch for whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches which indicate unstable storm slabs.

Avalanche Summary

Ski cutting on the North Shore mountains on Monday morning produced widespread size 1 storm slab releases on all aspects within the recent storm snow.

Reports from the northern part of the region around Squamish over the weekend indicate that a natural avalanche cycle occurred in steep and convex alpine terrain with last week's storm.

Expect natural activity to continue with the new storm load, rain,  and rising freezing levels on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

The North Shore mountains received 25-30 cm overnight on Sunday and another 10-15 cm throughout the day on Monday, bringing storm snow totals to around 60-80 cm since last Thursday which is generally bonded well to the old surface up to treeline elevations.

Alpine areas around Squamish have likely received about 60-100 cm of storm snow and more wind. In these areas the storm snow is likely sitting on a mixture of weak grains including a crust on solar aspects and potentially facets/surface hoar on polar aspects.

Below the storm snow the snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Weather Forecast

There is uncertainty with freezing levels and how much precipitation will fall as rain/snow up to treeline. Alpine areas will likely see heavy snowfall.

TONIGHT: Snow and rain. Precipitation 25-35 mm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Temperature at treeline near 0. Freezing level 1200 m.

TUESDAY: Snow and rain. Precipitation 5-15 mm. Ridge wind moderate, west. Temperature at treeline near 0. Freezing level rising to 1700 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, northwest. Temperature at treeline near -3. Freezing level 1000 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind light west. Temperature at treeline near -1. Freezing level 1200 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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