Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Mar 23, 2018 - 3:19 PM

Valid until

Mar 24, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

Thursday's storm came in with moderate southerly winds that likely  formed wind slabs up high which may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust. It may be calendar spring, but it's winter in the mountains, be very cautious in wind affected terrain.

Regular season
Saturday - March 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - March 25, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - March 26, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Thursday's storm came in with moderate southerly wind that has likely formed slabs on lee alpine features. Storm slabs likely remain sensitive to human triggering. Periods of sun may also induce natural avalanche activity on solar aspects. 

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches which indicate unstable storm slabs.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes if solar radiation becomes strong.

Avalanche Summary

Very little avalanche activity has been reported form the North Shore mountains where the storm began as rain and then transitioned to snow. In the alpine, new snow and wind Wednesday night into Thursday likely initiated natural storm slab avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Around 45 mm of precipitation fell Thursday into early Friday morning. Rain transitioned to snow above 1000 m Thursday morning which produced about 25 cm of snow with light to moderate east/southeast wind. The warm to cold nature of the storm has allowed the new snow to bond well to the old surface up to treeline, but little is currently known about the alpine. The alpine likely saw very little if any rain and more snow/wind. Up high the new snow is thought to be sitting on a mixture of weak grains including a crust on solar aspects and potentially facets/surface hoar on polar aspects.

Below any recent snow accumulations, the overall snowpack is well settled and strong.

Weather Forecast

A cold and unstable pool of air is allowing for cooler than normal temperatures and also driving convective precipitation that should continue through Friday night. A bit of clearing is in store for Saturday before cloud builds back into the region Sunday.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at 600 m, moderate southwest wind, 5 to 10 cm of snow.

SATURDAY: A few clouds, freezing level beginning at 500 m rising to 1000 m, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

SUNDAY: A few clouds in the morning building to broken cloud cover in the afternoon, freezing level holding at about 600 m, light west/southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

MONDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning around 600 m rising to about 1000 m, light southwest wind at 2000 m, moderate to strong west/northwest wind at ridge top, 2 to 4 mm of precipitation possible.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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