Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Mar 8, 2018 - 4:21 PM

Valid until

Mar 9, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

New snow accumulating through Thursday into Friday at upper elevations is driving the avalanche danger in the alpine.

Regular season
Thursday - March 8, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - March 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - March 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Fresh storm slabs have built at higher elevations and be most reactive on wind-loaded slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rain is possible up to treeline elevations, which could weaken the surface snow and trigger loose wet avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for terrain traps where small amounts of snow will acumulate into deep deposits.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. A MIN report from just outside the region near Squamish on Sunday (Watersprite Lake) describes a natural size 2 avalanche that failed on a south aspect at 1750 m (see photo and details here).

Snowpack Summary

New snow accumulating through Thursday into Friday at upper elevations will form deep deposits in wind loaded terrain. This new snow sits on a sun crust or moist snow on steep south-facing slopes, cold dry snow on northerly aspects, and an overall well settled snowpack. Cornices have formed on many alpine ridge lines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as they are subject to the strong late-winter sun on clear days.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Overnight Thursday into Friday snow, accumulation 20-30cm then a mix of sun and cloud through Friday / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -2 / Freezing level 800m

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / light south wind / Alpine temperature 1 / Freezing level 1400m

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate south wind / Alpine temperature 7 / Freezing level 2500m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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