Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Mar 4, 2018 - 3:40 PM

Valid until

Mar 5, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Storm snow is gaining strength, but you should remain wary of solar aspects where the new snow rests on a buried sun crust that may remain sensitive to human triggering.

Regular season
Monday - March 5, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - March 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - March 7, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

20 to 40 cm of recent snowfall arrived with strong wind. This slab is gaining strength and settling out quickly, but you should remain wary of south facing slopes where up to 100 cm of storm snow rests on an untrustworthy buried sun crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Be cautious around steep south-facing slopes.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Continued snowfall and strong wind from around the clock has formed large cornices on many ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect, especially when the sun is out.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Firm cornices may pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.

Check out this MCR report (here) that talks about the strong late winter sun initiating natural avalanches to size 2 on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

The region picked up 20 to 40 cm of snow Wednesday and Thursday with moderate winds out of the east/southeast. This adds to the 50 to 70 cm that fell earlier in the week. All of this snow rests on previously wind-affected surfaces and a sun crust on southerly aspects.

Cornices have formed on many alpine ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as they are subject to the strong late-winter sun on clear days.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Cloudy, light west wind, freezing level rising to around 800 m.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light wind, freezing level rising to around 1000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, light wind, freezing level rising to around 1400 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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