Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Feb 17, 2018 - 4:06 PM

Valid until

Feb 18, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Human-triggered avalanches are likely. Storm snow will take longer than usual to gain strength.

Regular season
Saturday - February 17, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - February 19, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm slabs will remain very reactive to human triggers on Sunday. Surprisingly wide propagations are possible because of the buried crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be very cautious near open slopes and convex rolls
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large cornices have formed along ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect. Give them a wide berth from above and below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Firm cornices may pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

Storm snow was very reactive on Saturday, with numerous reports of size 1-2 slab avalanches being triggered by skiers, including remotely (from a distance). Activity occurred on all aspects at both treeline and below treeline elevations. Conditions were likely similar in alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall has buried a hard rain crust that extends into alpine terrain. The crust is now roughly 40 cm below the surface, and reports suggest the snow will take several days to bond to the crust. The result is a very touchy storm slab above the crust. There are no significant layers of concern below the crust.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: A few light flurries in the morning and then clearing and cooling as Arctic air pushes into the region, moderate northeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.

MONDAY: Sunny, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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