Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Feb 11, 2018 - 4:53 PM

Valid until

Feb 12, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Cooling temperatures have formed a thick crust that extends into the alpine. At upper alpine elevations pockets of wind slab may exist and will likely be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Regular season
Sunday - February 11, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - February 12, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - February 13, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs may have a poor bond to the underlying crust and be reactive at upper alpine elevations. Loose dry avalanches are possible from steep alpine terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets that may exist near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large cornices have formed and may remain fragile. Cornices are unpredictable and demand respect. Give them a wide berth from above and below, especially during periods of warming temperatures or sun-exposure.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a cornice collapse was the likely cause of a size 2 avalanche on a north facing slope near the West Lion. See here for images and more details. 

Pockets of thin wind slabs may exist in wind-loaded areas in the high alpine and may be sensitive to human triggers.

Snowpack Summary

Rain at the end of the week saturated snow surfaces and only higher alpine elevations were lucky enough to receive a light cover of new snow. With the arrival of cold temperatures, the upper snowpack has locked up as a firm crust. The average snowpack depth at treeline is 300 cm of well settled snow with no significant layers of concern.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny. Ridge wind light, northwest. Temperature -3. Freezing level 700 m. Alpine inversion.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate, west. Temperature near -2. Freezing level 600 m. Alpine inversion.

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with occasional flurries. Ridge wind light, north west. Temperature near 0 degrees. Freezing level 700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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