Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Feb 7, 2018 - 4:24 PM

Valid until

Feb 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Avalanche danger remains elevated with warm temperatures and high freezing levels through Thursday.

Regular season
Wednesday - February 7, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - February 8, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - February 9, 2018
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The snowpack is saturated at lower elevations and loose wet avalanches are possible.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New storm slabs may be reactive at upper alpine elevations. The new snow may have a poor bond to the underlying crust. Small loose dry avalanches are likely from steep terrain features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Avalanche Problem 3: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large cornices have formed and they remain fragile. These monsters could surprise you with nasty consequences and demand respect. Use extra caution around ridge crests.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Falling cornices may trigger avalanches on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

A mix of rain and snow fell on a variety of old snow surfaces including crusts and moist snow at lower elevations. In high alpine areas like Sky Pilot and the Chehalis Range the more recent (saturated) snow has refrozen into a solid crust and the new snow may have a poor bond to that crust. At lower elevations snow surfaces are moist/ wet and have become unstable. The mid and lower snowpack are well consolidated with no significant layers of concern.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near +3. Ridgetop winds light from the northwest and freezing levels 1500 m.

Friday: Mix of sun and cloud with alpine temperatures near -4 and freezing levels 600 m. Ridgetop winds light from the north.

Saturday: Mostly clear. Alpine temperatures near -14 with ridgetop winds light from the northeast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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