Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Feb 2, 2018 - 5:15 PM

Valid until

Feb 3, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Warm temperatures and light rain will destabilize surface snow layers. Manage your terrain use carefully and avoid terrain traps.

Regular season
Friday - February 2, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - February 3, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - February 4, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Rain and rising freezing levels will destabilize surface snow layers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Wet loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and also gullies where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent heavy snowfall and high winds have created fragile new cornice growth. These monsters may surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Falling cornices may trigger avalanches on slopes below.
  • Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

As of Friday morning, rain had begun to soak the 7-13 cm of snow that had fallen overnight. Wind slabs may remain in areas where winds were strong on Wednesday and Thursday.

At treeline and below, the new (saturated) snow overlies either a crust or moist snow from Monday's rain event. In high alpine areas like Sky Pilot and the Chehalis Range the new snow overlies thick storm slabs which developed during the stormy weather at the end of January.

The mid and lower snowpack are well consolidated with no significant layers of concern.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: 5-10mm of precipitation / Light and variable winds / Freezing level 1500m overnight Friday rising to 2000m

Sunday: 20mm of precipitation (double or triple that possible) / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 2300m

Monday: 5-10cm of snow / Light westerly winds / Freezing level at 900m

Note: Confidence is low for forecast wind values and precipitation amounts on Saturday and Sunday.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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