Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 24, 2018 - 4:56 PM

Valid until

Jan 25, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

New snow and wind are creating deeper and increasingly destructive storm slabs ripe for human triggering. Sticking to simple terrain would be a great way to manage the elevated hazard on Thursday.

Regular season
Wednesday - January 24, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - January 25, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - January 26, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Forecast new snow and wind on Wednesday night are expected to continue to create touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • The new snow will need time to settle and stabilize.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and time of day.

Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Large amounts of recent new snow and high winds are creating rapid cornice growth.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
  • Falling cornices may trigger large avalanches on the slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported, but that may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. Looking forward, forecast snow and wind will promote ongoing storm slab avalanche activity, especially in higher elevation, lee terrain.

Snowpack Summary

In recent days the region was pummeled by heavy precipitation with the rain line hovering around 800m. 20cm of new snow is being redistributed by moderate southerly ridgetop winds. The reactivity of the new storm slabs is likely to vary greatly depending on elevation/ temperature and orientation to wind. In general, I would expect the touchiest conditions to exist in exposed, higher elevation terrain.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 15-30cm of new snow / Strong to extreme southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1000m.

THURSDAY: 10-20cm of new snow / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level dropping to around 600m.

FRIDAY: 5-10cm of new snow / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 600m.

SATURDAY: 5-10 cm of new snow / Light to moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 600m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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