Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 22, 2018 - 4:54 PM

Valid until

Jan 23, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jlammers

Continued heavy storm loading throughout the week will keep the avalanche danger at HIGH.

Regular season
Monday - January 22, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 23, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - January 24, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

An impressive storm has just occurred, and deep and dense storm slabs lurk in lee and cross-loaded terrain. New snow and wind on Tuesday will add to this ongoing storm slab problem. Watch for conditions to intensify throughout the day.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • The new snow will need time to settle and stabilize.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and time of day.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported, but that may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. I'm sure there was an impressive round of storm slab activity on Sunday, especially at higher elevations where the snow was colder and winds were stronger. With more snow and wind on the way, natural and human-triggered storm slab activity should continue throughout the week.

Snowpack Summary

In recent days the region was pummeled by heavy precipitation with the rain line hovering around 800m. As of Monday morning, the 48 hour precipitation totals were up to 130mm on the North Shore mountains with closer to 60mm falling north of the Fraser Valley. Strong to extreme winds have redistributed the new snow into deep, dense and potentially destructive storm slabs while rain has saturated the snowpack at lower elevations. The reactivity of the new storm slabs is likely to vary greatly depending on elevation/ temperature and orientation to wind. In general, I would expect the touchiest conditions to exist in exposed, higher elevation terrain.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: 20-30cm of new snow / Strong to extreme southerly winds / Freezing level at 1000m

Wednesday: 15-30cm of new snow / Strong southerly winds / Freezing level at 1400m

Thursday: 20-50cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 800m

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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