Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 20, 2018 - 4:27 PM

Valid until

Jan 21, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

With heavy snow and high winds in the forecast, Sunday looks like a great day to enjoy the resort. Or stick to simple, low-angle terrain free of overhead hazard if you choose to venture into the backcountry.

Regular season
Saturday - January 20, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Sunday - January 21, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 22, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent storm snow and strong winds have formed deep storm slabs. These slabs have been very reactive to skier triggering, particularly in steeper terrain and wind-loaded areas.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
  • The new snow will need time to settle and stabilize.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday explosive control work produced several size 1-1.5 avalanches ranging from 20-60 cm deep and failing within the recent storm snow.

Friday, ski cutting produced size 1-1.5, storm snow releases in all steep terrain. Rapid loading and significant cornice development were also reported on Friday with professionals in the region commenting that conditions were changing dramatically during the day, and avalanche hazard increasing.

Snowpack Summary

Above 1000m about 60 cm of new snow has fallen with as much as 80-90 cm of new snow at higher elevations. This storm snow now covers a crust that was buried on January 17th. Below this crust the upper snowpack which consists of 90 cm of moist to wet snow and three prominent crusts (buried January 10th, January 8th and January 7th respectively). While these crust remain easily identifiable they have been unreactive in recent snowpack tests.

The snowpack depth at 1000 m is now about 200 cm.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Heavy snow. Accumulation 30-40 cm. Ridge wind strong to extreme, south. Temperature -1. Freezing level 1000 m.

SUNDAY: Heavy snow. Accumulation 35-45 cm. Ridge wind strong to extreme, south. Temperature -1. Freezing level 1000 m.

MONDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-15 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Temperature -2. Freezing level 900 m.

TUESDAY: Snow. Accumulation 20-30 cm. Ridge wind strong to extreme, south. Temperature -1. Freezing level 1100 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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