Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 18, 2018 - 4:42 PM

Valid until

Jan 19, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Snow and wind are expected to continue however, there is some uncertainty as to just how much snowfall some areas will see. If trail breaking is deep and heavy, storm slabs have likely formed - stick to moderate terrain.

Regular season
Thursday - January 18, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - January 19, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - January 20, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

New snow combined with southerly winds will form storm slabs particularly on lee slopes at upper treeline and alpine elevations. These slabs overlie a recent melt-freeze crust and may be easily triggered by a skier or rider.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.
  • Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Avalanche Summary

Last Tuesday a skier was injured in a loose, wet avalanche on the North Shore mountains when the top 10-15 cm of wet snow released on the January 8th crust. On Friday explosive control produced a size 1 avalanche that released a 45 cm thick slab on a weak layer just above the January 7th crust.

Snowpack Summary

At upper treeline and alpine elevations, 5 cm up to 30 cm of new snow has fallen and now covers the January 17th crust. At lower elevations rain has soaked the upper snowpack which consists of 90 cm of wet to moist snow and three deeper crusts (January 10th, January 8th and January 7th). These remain visible but have been unreactive in recent snowpack tests. 

The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Snow. Accumulation 15-20 cm. Ridge wind moderate to strong, southwest. Temperature -1. Freezing level 900 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 20-30 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -1. Freezing level 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 20-25 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -1. Freezing level 1000 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 20-25 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -1. Freezing level 900 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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