Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 9, 2018 - 5:45 PM

Valid until

Jan 10, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

Human triggered avalanches remain likely Wednesday, especially in steep wind-loaded terrain above treeline. Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Regular season
Tuesday - January 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - January 10, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - January 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

20 to 40 cm of rain soaked storm snow rests on one or potentially even two crusts. This snow may react as a storm slab in steep terrain or as a wind slab in wind exposed features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed slabs.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Loose wet avalanches may still be problematic Wednesday morning in steep terrain where precipitation has fallen as rain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday we received a report of a skier triggering a size 2.0 avalanche on the First Pump of Mount Seymour above the summer snowshoe trail. This is presumed to be the south facing slab at 1300 m, but this is not confirmed. On Monday storm slabs were sensitive to skier triggering to size 1.0 on northwest through southeast facing features with crowns 10 to 15 cm in depth.

Snowpack Summary

In the last 48 hours the North Shore Mountains have received about 85 mm of rain, and approximately 20 cm of snow with a rapidly fluctuating freezing level. 10 to 20 cm of rain soaked snow now rests on the rain crust that formed Monday January 8th. Below the January 8th crust there is 15 to 30 cm of well settled rain soaked snow, that snow sits on the January 7th melt/freeze crust. The January 8th crust may not be present in the Alpine where temperatures are thought to have stayed cooler over the last few days. Significantly more storm snow is likely present in the Alpine, but we have few observations from that elevation band. Check out this great MIN report for an idea of current alpine conditions.

Approximately 50 to 100 cm of moist snow are between the surface and a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December, these crust layers have been reported to be bonding to the snow above and below.

The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.

Weather Forecast

The parade of Pacific storms will continue across southern B.C for the next several days, keeping alpine snow packs building through Thursday. The next system on Wednesday will be weak and affect mainly the south coast. Thursday's storm will be the main event of the week and feature moderate to heavy snow for the south coast alpine and much of the interior. The biggest snow accumulations this week will be over the South Coast and Interior Ranges.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast, freezing level holding at 800 m, moderate northwest wind, 1 to 3 cm of snow possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at 1000 m, moderate south wind, 25 to 40 cm of snow possible.

THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing around 1100 m, strong west/southwest wind, 15 to 30 cm of snow possible.

FRIDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 900 m, light variable wind, no snow expected.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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