Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Dec 25, 2017 - 3:55 PM

Valid until

Dec 26, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

It may have been a white Christmas, but don't expect much change until we ho, ho, hopefully see some appreciable precipitation later in the week.

Regular season
Monday - December 25, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - December 26, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - December 27, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent variable winds have formed pockets of wind slab on most aspects in the alpine and exposed areas at treeline. These slabs overlie the December 18th crust and may still be sensitive to human triggering.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of stiff or hollow feeling snow, whumpfing, or shooting cracks.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no new reports of avalanche activity since last Wednesday when a natural Size 2 slab avalanche was reported on a southeast aspect at 1400 m on the North Shore mountains, as well as a Size 1 on a west aspect at 1200 m.

Snowpack Summary

A light dusting of new snow now covers the variable old surface consisting of; wind-scoured northwesterly slopes, areas of hard and soft wind slab on alpine lee slopes and exposed treeline areas, as well as a thin sun crust on steep solar aspects.

Approximately 2-5 cm of new snow overlies 15-30 cm of old storm snow on top of the most recent December 18th melt-freeze crust, which has been unreactive in recent snowpack tests. Below this crusts lies 20 cm of well settled snow above the December 16th crust. Below this crust, a third crust, the 20 cm thick late-November crust, is now buried 40-50 cm. The lower snowpack well settled and moist to ground. Snowpack depths are about 135 cm at 1100 m elevation, with many early season hazards present at lower elevations.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light from the west. Temperature -4. Freezing level surface.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate from the southwest. Temperature -3. Freezing level surface.

THURSDAY: Snow. Accumulation 15- 25 cm. Ridge wind moderate from the southwest. Temperature +1. Freezing level 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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