Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Dec 13, 2017 - 3:20 PM

Valid until

Dec 14, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

With more spring-like weather expected on Thursday, watch for changing snow conditions during the day. It may be possible to trigger loose, wet snow in steep, sunny or rocky terrain. Once moving wet snow can gather mass quickly.

Regular season
Wednesday - December 13, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - December 14, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - December 15, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed since last Wednesday when small loose wet avalanches were noted up to size 1 in steep terrain, entraining the top 15 to 20 cm of snow. However, some rather large blocks of snow were observed to topple over from the base of a steep, rocky outcrop depositing a 10 m wide debris pile across a snowshoe trail on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

A spring-like, melt-freeze crust has formed on most aspects but will likely soften by the afternoon with continued warm temperatures and high freezing levels forecasted for Thursday. In shaded areas on north aspects at upper elevations feathery, surface hoar and sugary, faceted snow may still exist. Below the snow surface, the upper snowpack is well-settled an sits on the late-November rain crust. This crust is now buried approximately 120 cm at 1300m elevation, and is up to 30 cm thick. Beneath the crust, the lower snowpack is wet to ground. Below treeline the snow pack is thin and there are many early season hazards. Snowpack depths range from 30 cm at 800 m elevation to 180 cm at 1220 m.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light from the west. Temperature +7. Freezing level 3600 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy, rain and wet flurries. Accumulation 5 cm. Ridge wind light from the west. Temperature +1. Freezing level lowering to 800 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation up to 5 cm. Ridge wind light from the west. Temperature 0. Freezing level 900 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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